資料紹介
© BP 2006
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
Christof Rühl
12 June, 2007
www.bp.com/statisticalreview
© BP 2007© BP 2007
Contents
1. Introduction
2. What Has Changed? The Medium Term
3. What is New? 2006 in Review
4. Energy Developments by Fuel
5. Conclusion
© BP 2007 1
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
Christof Rühl
London • June 2007
1. Introduction
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
© BP 2007
Outline
Introduction
What Has Changed? The Medium Term
What is New? 2006 in Review
Conclusion
Energy has very much been in the spotlight in recent
years. One way or another, the reasons usually lead to
the increase in prices and the acceleration in energy
consumption growth we have witnessed over the last
few years.
Based on the data published in this year’s Statistical
Review of World Energy, I will look at recent energy
developments from two perspectives. I first look at
medium term developments by comparing the last
five years with earlier periods. Then I focus on what
changed from the beginning of 2006 until now, and
why.
Looking through the first lens reveals the magnitude
of the changes that have taken place – as global
economic growth accelerated, energy consumption
grew faster in relation to GDP than in earlier periods,
despite higher prices. Looking through the second
lens reveals the impact of high energy prices and
suggests the possibility of a return to a less energy
intensive mode of global economic growth. Both
All rights reserved.
資料の原本内容
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
Christof Rühl
12 June, 2007
www.bp.com/statisticalreview
© BP 2007
© BP 2006
Contents
1. Introduction
2. What Has Changed? The Medium Term
3. What is New? 2006 in Review
4. Energy Developments by Fuel
5. Conclusion
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
Christof Rühl
London • June 2007
Looking through the first lens reveals the magnitude
of the changes that have taken place – as global
economic growth accelerated, energy consumption
grew faster in relation to GDP than in earlier periods,
despite higher prices. Looking through the second
lens reveals the impact of high energy prices and
suggests the possibility of a return to a less energy
intensive mode of global economic growth. Both
views have important implications, not least for the
growth of global carbon emissions.
1. Introduction
Outline
Introduction
What Has Changed? The Medium Term
My aim is to provide a rigorous analysis, to
understand what has happened, and why.
What is New? 2006 in Review
Conclusion
2. What Has Changed?
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
© BP 2007
Energy has very much been in the spotlight in recent
years. One way or another, the reasons usually lead to
the increase in prices and the acceleration in energy
consumption growth we have witnessed over the last
few years.
Based on the data published in this year’s Statistical
Review of World Energy, I will look at recent energy
developments from two perspectives. I first look at
medium term developments by comparing the last
five years with earlier periods. Then I focus on what
changed from the beginning of 2006 until now, and
why.
© BP 2007
I want to start by assessing the energy experience
over the last five years, 2001 through 2006, and by
comparing this period with earlier periods. The
objective is to provide the context for more recent
energy developments.
The challenge in addressing this question is that the
world has not stood still. The last five years have been
a period of strong global economic growth. The
previous 5 years – 1996 through 2001 – were
dominated by the Asian financial crisis and China’s
coal restructuring. The early 1990s saw the collapse
of the Soviet Union and its economy and energy
sector. In light of these factors and the reality that
history does not divide neatly into 5 year periods,
what has happened in world energy markets? How
have key forces changed?
1
Energy Prices
Index 1991=100
350
300
Oil (dated Brent)
250
Gas basket
200
150
Coal basket
100
Weighted
average
On average for the last five years, oil prices have
more than doubled; gas prices have risen 75% and an
average of coal prices has increased by 46%
compared to the average of 1996 - 2001. Forward
prices indicate that many market participants expect
to see high energy prices sustained for at least the rest
of the decade.
The next dimension is that of energy consumption
growth.
50
0
1991
1994
1997
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
2000
2003
World Energy Consumption Growth
2006
© BP 2007
Average annual growth
Excl. China
6%
The best starting point is the price of energy. The
price of all forms of commercially traded energy has
increased substantially. Recent energy prices have
been
significantly
different
from
previous
experiences.
Energy prices were stable during 1991 - 96 in the face
of adequate and growing supplies. But this did not
last. Growing supplies were supplemented by lower
demand due to the Asian financial crisis. Oil prices, in
particular, slumped to $10/bbl. However, OPEC
actions rebalanced the market and prices recovered to
levels above those of the early 1990s. Gas prices
followed oil prices as a result of the end of the US gas
bubble and indexation to oil in other markets. Coal
remained in adequate supply. By 2001 a weighted
average of hydrocarbon prices had increased by 59%
from the trough of 1998. However, the average
increase for the full five year period of 1996 - 2001
was only 8%.
The last ...
