資料紹介
大学院修士課程在学中（Master of Public Health）の災害マネジメントの授業で提出したessayです。南海トラフ地震に備えて、必要な災害マネジメントについてSendai Frameworkを基に調べました。自分のpcに眠らせているのももったいないので、公開します。
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資料の原本内容
Module Title: [HAR686 Disaster and Emergency Management]
[A critical hazard analysis and mitigation strategies for the Nankai Trough Earthquake in Japan]
Student Registration ID: [180135684]
Word Count: [3165]
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1. Introduction
Among natural disasters, earthquakes have caused many casualties in the past. Even a decade ago, the devastating earthquakes killed lots of people over the world (8000 people in Nepal, 2015, 20000 people in Japan, 2011, 230000 people in Haiti, 2010).
Japan is one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world. Approximately 20% of the earthquakes (over Magnitude6+) occur around Japan (1). Currently, the Japanese government pays attention to the hazard of the devastating earthquake,
known as the Nankai Trough earthquake. According to the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, it is estimated to happen within 30 years with a 70-80% probability (2). The area of Nankai is a boundary between the Eurasian plate and the Philippine Sea plate (See Appendix: Figure.1). Because of this geographical structure, significant earthquakes have regularly occurred in this area. Looking back
1400 years, there is one significant earthquake every 100-200 years frequency and the latest major earthquake around this area was the Showa Nankai earthquake, which occurred in 1946. According to the governmental estimation based on the timeprediction-model, the average probability of the occurence of a significant earthquake is once every 88.2 years (2). Therefore, the risk of the Nankai Trough earthquake is rapidly increasing, and elaborate emergency planning is urgently needed in Japan.
･Background of the country
Japan is a country in an economically developed country in East Asia with a population of 126 million people. Japan is earthquake prone country because it is located on the border of four plates (Eurasian plate, North American plate, Pacific plate, Philippine sea plate), and 7% of active volcanoes in the world are located there (3). Furthermore, there are the potential risks of a tsunami following an earthquake due to the fact Japan is an island. As a result, Japan accounts for 11.9% of the total damage costs of natural disasters in the world (4). It is necessary to consider the country’s background when developing a disaster management plan.
2. In-depth hazard analysis
･ Likelihood and potential severity
As mentioned above, the likelihood of the Nankai Trough earthquake occurring is quite high, and it is projected to increase to over 90% within 50 years (5). According to the national report (2), the total number of casualties is estimated to be at most 323,000 people, which is about seventeen times as many casualties as the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. Among the casualties, approximately 230,000 people will be killed by a tsunami following the earthquake. Especially four bay area cities will be affected by this colossal tsunami: Shimoda, Shima, Miyazaki, Osaka, with an estimated height of 31, 23, 12, 4 metres respectively. As Osaka is the second largest city in
Japan there might be unprecedented damages to not only human life but als...
